According to a report published by the International Energy Agency, the conflict in Ukraine could “accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system.”
“The global energy crisis that was triggered by the invasion of Ukraine is expected to accelerate the transition to an energy system that is more sustainable and secure,” guarantees the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its world report on energy, which was published this Thursday. This is good news.
The war that Russia is waging causes a shock unlike any seen before as well as long-lasting changes, along with very significant vibrations in the markets for natural gas, coal, electricity, and oil. According to Fatih Birol, the head of the American Institute of Energy Economics (AIE), “this fight is reshaping energy markets and policies for decades to come.” On the other hand, the research concludes that there is “no evidence to corroborate accusations in some quarters that zero-emission commitments have contributed to skyrocketing energy prices.”
In the medium to long term, many governments are beginning to take steps to “accelerate structural changes,” as the agency emphasizes by evoking the United States, with the law on the reduction of inflation, the European Union, with Fit for 55 and REPowerEU, Japan, or even South Korea, China, and India. The effect of this is that, according to the scenario developed by the IEA based on policies that have already been announced, worldwide investment in clean energy would skyrocket to more than $2 trillion per year by the year 2030. This is an increase of more than 50 percent in just eight years. The impact of the crisis on the usage of coal, which has recently begun to increase again, is “temporary,” according to experts.
The year 2025 marks the peak in CO2 emissions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that in this possible future, renewable energy sources, with the assistance of nuclear power, achieve sustained growth. In the year 2025, world CO2 emissions will have reached their highest point. Even in this scenario, which is pessimistic compared to the others, it is anticipated that coal consumption will fall over the following several years. According to the projections made by the IEA, the demand for gas will only increase by a marginal amount (less than five percent) by the year 2030, and then it will remain stable until the year 2050. In addition, the surge in sales of electric vehicles causes a leveling off of the demand for oil around the middle of the 2030s, which is followed by a little fall that continues until the middle of the century.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that, between the middle of the year 2020 and the year 2050, the demand for fossil fuels on a global scale will gradually decrease. This indicates that the proportion of fossil fuels in the overall global energy mix will rise from its current level of over 80% to slightly over 60% in the year 2050.
Before COP 27, there is a concern.
Nevertheless, there will be a gradual reduction in global CO2 emissions. They are expected to rise from 37 billion tonnes each year to 32 billion tonnes in the year 2050. This will result in an increase in global temperatures of approximately 2.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, which is far higher than the 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius that are the two major figures in the Paris climate agreements. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that this will not be enough to prevent the severe effects of climate change.
His worry is shared by the United Nations. Wednesday, a few days before COP27, the world climate conference convened this year in Egypt on the shores of the Red Sea, the United Nations made the point that the current commitments are “quite far” from meeting the 1.5°C aim. According to UN Climate, the United Nations body in charge of the climate, the plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that have been submitted by the 193 signature nations “may put the world on pace for 2.5°C warming by the end of the century.” To achieve the stated goal, its scientists have determined that, compared to 2010, global emissions will need to decrease by 45% by the year 2030. Nevertheless, the current promises lead to a 10.6% increase in emissions, which is not the desired result.
According to the United Nations and the International Energy Agency, climate policies need to be strengthened. The second option requires global investments in renewable energies that are two times as great as those that are now planned.
